4 explanation why we may be overreacting to no Cinderella groups advancing to the Candy 16.
Yearly there’s a storyline that develops from the primary week of the NCAA match that dominates the nationwide sports activities dialog for these three days that separate the second spherical and the Candy 16. Sometimes, play resumes on Thursday, the main focus returns to the court docket, and the “huge story” from the week earlier than morphs into limitless discussions in regards to the Remaining 4 earlier than it disappears eternally.
This 12 months’s first week huge story could have a bit longer of a shelf-life.
The subject, after all, is NIL and the switch portal eliminating Cinderella groups from the dance, and the ensuing query of whether or not or not she’s ever going to return.
Contemplating the outcomes of the primary week, the dialog was unavoidable.
Not solely did energy convention chalk reign supreme in the course of the match’s opening week, however it do at a historic stage.
Each prime 4 seed superior out of the match’s first spherical for the primary time since 2017 and simply the fourth time within the fashionable period of the occasion. The typical margin of victory within the spherical of 64 was the best of all-time.
The insanity solely bought extra predictable within the second spherical, with zero groups seeded increased than tenth advancing to the match’s second weekend for the primary time since 2007. Energy convention groups signify the whole lot of the Candy 16 for the primary time ever, and a file low of solely 4 whole conferences (the 4 strongest) are represented within the second weekend. The earlier low was seven conferences.
The Huge Ten gained its first 10 video games of the match. No convention had ever performed that earlier than. The SEC despatched seven groups to the Candy 16. No convention had ever performed that earlier than.
Put merely, the haves of the game have dominated this 12 months’s match at ranges beforehand not seen.
The simple conclusion from all of that is additionally the only: Two conferences have extra money than any two conferences have had within the historical past of faculty sports activities. The monetary hole between the facility conferences and the mid/low main conferences has by no means been this huge. And the brand new switch and NIL guidelines open the door for the colleges with all the cash to have the very best gamers, the very best coaches and the very best every little thing else on an annual foundation.
TLDR: The Cinderella is already lifeless. The 2025 match is simply the primary time everybody might see the corpse.
The concept a number of SEC vs. Huge Ten regional semifinals and the closest factor to a Cinderella being a gaggle of former 5-stars coached by John Calipari goes to be the brand new regular in school basketball could wind up being fully correct. However let’s have a look at the explanation why perhaps that is an overreaction.
Purpose 1: It’s one 12 months
Certain, the portal and NIL have grown more and more extra vital since their inception, however it’s not like they weren’t across the earlier two years.
We’re just below 24 months faraway from watching a Fifth-seeded San Diego State group from the Mountain West and a Ninth-seeded Florida Atlantic group from Convention USA battling it out within the Remaining 4. That match additionally noticed the second 16 over 1 upset within the match’s historical past, Furman stun Virginia on the buzzer within the first spherical, and 15-seed Princeton crash the Candy 16.
A 12 months later, we had Yale, Grand Canyon, James Madison and Oakland pull first spherical stunners. Three of these 4 coming in opposition to energy convention opponents.
Perhaps we have to await proof past a single match to attract any sweeping conclusions about the way forward for March Insanity on this new period.
Purpose 2: It’s as a lot about convention consolidation as anything
Rather a lot has been manufactured from simply 4 conferences being represented within the match’s second weekend. That’s comprehensible. The truth that the earlier file low was seven is jarring.
It’s additionally vital to notice that simply 4 conferences being represented can also be not less than partially as a result of most up-to-date serving to of convention realignment.
Two years in the past, BYU was a member of the West Coast Convention. Two years in the past, Houston was a member of the American Athletic Convention.
Each these packages, notably Houston, had been doing fairly nicely of their previous properties.
Purpose 3: One shot, one inch, one name can change a complete narrative
The “Cinderella is lifeless” speaking factors beforehand laid out scream fairly loudly.
Nonetheless, think about a world the place Maryland’s Derik Queen’s final second shot is 5 inches increased and it clangs off the rim as an alternative fantastically banking by the web (or … and don’t throw something at me right here … he’s referred to as for touring). On this very sensible world, Colorado State’s presence instantly eviscerates the “no group seeded worse than tenth” and “no group from a non-power convention” speaking factors.
It’s nonetheless a chalky match, little question, however the “we’ve seen the tip of main upsets on this occasion” speaking level loses a little bit steam.
Purpose 4: This isn’t fairly as irregular as everyone seems to be making it out to be
Once you hear “first match with no mid-major group within the Candy 16 in a billion years,” certain, it’s an consideration grabber.
Once you look a little bit bit nearer and see that the one “mid-major” within the second weekends of the 2016 and 2017 tournaments was Gonzaga, and that the one “mid-majors” within the second weekend of the 2019 match had been the Zags and Houston, nicely, it resonates a bit much less.
The large guys are dominating the second weekend this 12 months, however the huge guys have dominated the second weekend in most years.
One final thing, simply because we didn’t have a 13 by 16 seed advance this 12 months doesn’t imply that the little guys struck out fully. This match nonetheless noticed two groups from the Mountain West advance in the identical 12 months for the primary time since 2010, it noticed McNeese State from the Southland topple Clemson from the ACC, and it noticed the Missouri Valley’s Drake Bulldogs take down Missouri from the large, unhealthy SEC.
Some years the insanity is just a bit extra sane than others.
Is Cinderella really lifeless? Perhaps. There’s definitely proof to help the assumption. However that proof is essentially rooted within the outcomes of 4 days of basketball.
Perhaps she’s simply taking a breather.
