As lately as January, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia emphatically rejected the concept of a brief cease-fire in Ukraine.
However after a month through which President Trump turned American international coverage on its head and Russian forces made progress in a key battle, the Kremlin now seems eager not less than to entertain the 30-day cease-fire proposal made by Ukraine and the USA on Tuesday.
Dmitri S. Peskov, Mr. Putin’s spokesman, informed reporters on Wednesday that the Kremlin was “rigorously finding out” the end result of Tuesday’s talks between the USA and Ukraine, and their name for a monthlong cease-fire.
He stated he anticipated the USA to tell Russia within the coming days of “the small print of the negotiations that befell and the understandings that have been reached.” He raised the potential for one other telephone name between Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump, signaling that the Kremlin noticed the cease-fire proposal as simply part of a broader flurry of diplomacy.
Late Wednesday, Mr. Putin sought to indicate he was answerable for occasions by donning navy fatigues and holding a televised assembly together with his prime navy officers charged with pushing Ukraine out of Russia’s Kursk area, the place Russia has made progress in latest weeks. He directed his troops to defeat Ukraine within the area “within the shortest doable time,” a transfer that, if profitable, would deny Ukraine a key level of leverage in any negotiations with Russia.
Mr. Putin has seen a dizzying reversal in his geopolitical fortunes over the past month as Mr. Trump realigned American international coverage in Russia’s favor, antagonized U.S. allies and excoriated President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine on the White Home.
However the emergence of a joint cease-fire proposal from the USA and Ukraine complicates issues for Mr. Putin. It deepens the strain between his wishes for a far-reaching victory in Ukraine and for shut ties with Mr. Trump.
Whereas Mr. Trump says he needs to finish the conflict as quickly as doable, Mr. Putin has signaled he won’t cease preventing till he extracts main concessions from the West and from Kyiv, together with a pledge that Ukraine won’t be part of NATO and that the alliance will scale back its presence in Central and Japanese Europe.
On Jan. 20, when he congratulated Mr. Trump on his inauguration, Mr. Putin made clear that the aim of any Ukraine talks should “not be a brief cease-fire, not some form of respite.” Russia, he stated, sought “a long-term peace based mostly on respect for the authentic pursuits of all individuals, all nations who stay on this area.”
Analysts say Mr. Putin’s opposition to a brief cease-fire stemmed from the straightforward calculation that with Russian forces gaining on the battlefield, Moscow would solely surrender its leverage by stopping the preventing with out profitable concessions.
However a Feb. 12 telephone name between Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump, and the White Home’s subsequent alignment with Russia on the United Nations and elsewhere, could have affected Mr. Putin’s calculus by making him extra keen to remain on Mr. Trump’s good facet, analysts say.
That units up a fragile balancing act for the Kremlin.
Ilya Grashchenkov, a political analyst in Moscow, stated the Kremlin might be tempted to simply accept a truce that might be “tactically unfavorable however strategically favorable” as a way to “present that it’s a peacemaker.”
Whereas Russians weren’t current at Tuesday’s talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, the Trump administration has stored up its engagement with the Kremlin. John Ratcliffe, the C.I.A. director, spoke to his Russian counterpart, Sergei Naryshkin, on Tuesday, Russia’s international intelligence company stated on Wednesday.
Steve Witkoff, the envoy for Mr. Trump who met with Mr. Putin for a number of hours final month, plans to return to Russia within the coming days, based on two individuals accustomed to the matter, who requested anonymity to debate inside plans. Mr. Trump on Tuesday stated that he thought he would converse with Mr. Putin this week, and he informed reporters on the White Home on Wednesday that his negotiators have been en route.
“Individuals are going to Russia proper now as we converse,” Mr. Trump stated throughout a gathering with Eire’s prime minister. “And hopefully we will get a cease-fire from Russia.”
In an indication of Moscow’s persevering with allure offensive directed on the Trump camp, Russia’s international ministry launched a 90-minute interview on Wednesday that the international minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, gave to a few American video bloggers, together with the previous Fox Information persona Andrew Napolitano.
Mr. Lavrov, talking English, praised the Trump administration for reversing the Democrats’ “departure from Christian values” and stated Russia was prepared for the “regular relations” that the USA was providing.
“It actually will not be not possible that the Russians would settle for this,” Samuel Charap, a Russia analyst on the RAND Company, stated of the 30-day provide. “Not as a result of they need an unconditional, short-term cease-fire, however as a result of they now have a stake in relations with Washington.”
Mr. Putin’s calculus may be affected by Russia’s progress in latest days in pushing Ukrainian troops out of Kursk, the Russian border area the place Ukraine occupied a number of hundred sq. miles of territory in a shock incursion final August.
Mr. Zelensky had stated he deliberate to make use of that land as a bargaining chip in future talks, however the Kremlin signaled that it could refuse to barter as long as Ukraine held the territory.
With the Kursk area largely again in Russian palms, Mr. Putin not dangers dropping face by agreeing to a cease-fire that would depart Ukraine answerable for an space of Russian territory, stated Sergei Markov, a pro-Kremlin political analyst in Moscow.
An extra incentive to agree, Mr. Markov stated, was to ensure that Russia “doesn’t seem like a conflict maniac” within the eyes of non-Western nations which have averted imposing sanctions on Moscow. However, he stated, he anticipated Mr. Putin to insist on preconditions, corresponding to a halt on weapons provides to Ukraine at some stage in the cease-fire.
“Russia will very seemingly say, ‘Sure, however —,’” Mr. Markov stated in a telephone interview.
Russia’s fashionable pro-war bloggers on Wednesday didn’t show a lot enthusiasm for a cease-fire. A few of them expressed concern {that a} truce may ultimately result in a broader take care of the USA that, of their view, would betray the unique targets of the conflict and ultimately result in a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine.
One blogger, who goes by the identify Alex Parker Returns, argued in a submit on Wednesday {that a} peace deal would permit Ukraine “to get off simply and prepare for the following spherical.”
Ivan Nechepurenko contributed reporting.
