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Russia, Looking for to Salvage Army Bases, Goes Hat in Hand to Syria


The time had come to bend the knee — or at the least bend to actuality.

A delegation of Russian diplomats arrived final Tuesday in a caravan of white SUVs for a summit in Damascus and an unenviable project: lay the groundwork for Russia to maintain its navy bases in Syria, lower than two months after rebels had toppled Moscow’s most popular strongman, Bashar al-Assad.

To take action, the delegation would wish to win over a folks the Russian navy had bombed ruthlessly, serving to Mr. al-Assad, for years.

Awaiting them was Ahmed al-Shara, who had survived a decade of Russian airstrikes to emerge as Syria’s new interim chief. He stood within the presidential palace and confronted the Kremlin’s envoys for a long-awaited reckoning.

The talks that ensued, the primary between Moscow and Damascus because the finish of the almost 14-year conflict, ended unresolved. However they marked the start of doubtless drawn-out negotiations about what position, if any, Russia will play in postwar Syria, having misplaced its bid to maintain Mr. al-Assad in energy.

The assembly demonstrated the form of geopolitical horse-trading that has begun within the aftermath of Syria’s civil conflict — with the potential to remake the Center East. World powers are jockeying for affect, as Syria’s fledgling management tries to win legitimacy, safety and support by disciplined and stony-eyed realpolitik.

“I feel the overall air in Damascus is, ‘We Syrians don’t want a struggle with anybody at this level, together with our former enemies,’” mentioned Charles Lister, a senior fellow on the Center East Institute in Washington. “So de-escalation and pragmatism are the names of the sport.”

Nonetheless, it was the Russians who had been requested to make concessions. Mr. al-Shara emphasised that any new relations with Moscow “should tackle previous errors,” and requested compensation for the destruction Russia precipitated, his authorities mentioned in an announcement.

He additionally demanded that Moscow hand over Mr. al-Assad and his prime associates to face justice, in line with two officers within the caretaker authorities with data of the assembly.

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, a former spy who prizes loyalty, nearly definitely wouldn’t agree. Requested the day after the assembly whether or not Mr. al-Shara requested Mr. al-Assad’s extradition, Mr. Putin’s spokesman declined to remark.

Mr. al-Shara in any other case appeared surprisingly amenable to cooperating with Russia, versus Iran, Mr. al-Assad’s different key ally, which the brand new authorities in Damascus have mentioned is not welcome in Syria.

In an interview with the BBC in late December, Mr. al-Shara cited Syria’s “longstanding strategic relations” with Moscow and mentioned he was “not in a rush to get Russia out of Syria, as some folks think about.”

He famous, in a separate interview with Saudi state tv, that Russia has equipped the Syrian navy’s arms for many years and gives consultants who run Syria’s energy vegetation. The implication: Damascus might have Russia sooner or later.

“They’re completely determined for legitimacy and worldwide help,” Mr. Lister mentioned of Syria’s new leaders. “Inflicting any massive worldwide rupture can be the worst factor they may take into account doing.”

Past doable deliveries of oil and grain from Russia, what Mr. al-Shara wants is for Moscow to not play spoiler in his effort to reconstruct Syria and construct a authorities, mentioned Hanna Notte, an analyst on the James Martin Middle for Nonproliferation Research.

“This can be a nation that’s now, politically talking, being constructed from the ashes,” she mentioned. She identified that the Russians are everlasting members of the U.N. Safety Council and will impede Mr. al-Shara in some ways, ought to they resolve to not be “politically benevolent.”

Mr. al-Shara himself has famous Russia is taken into account the world’s second-most highly effective navy, and mentioned his newly fashioned authorities isn’t able to oppose main powers.

On the assembly, the place Russia was represented by its prime Center East envoy, Deputy International Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, neither facet seemed to be in a rush to make any massive choices. What the remainder of the world, and particularly america, European Union, Turkey and Saudi Arabia, demand from Syria’s new leaders might additionally affect Russia’s destiny.

In latest weeks, a flurry of diplomats from these and different nations have arrived in Damascus to fulfill Mr. al-Shara.

Russia needs to maintain its naval base on the Mediterranean at Tartus, which dates to the Soviet period. It additionally seeks to take care of the Hmeimim Air Base outdoors Latakia, which Moscow has used as a provide and stopover hub for expeditionary operations in Africa. Up to now, the brand new Syrian authorities haven’t mentioned no, and Russia has stayed put, regardless of shifting materiel off the bases.

Syria’s pragmatic rhetoric has been reciprocated in Moscow.

After years of defending the Assad regime on the battlefield and on the United Nations, Russian leaders have spun the lack of their longtime ally as a win and prolonged an olive department to the brand new authorities, whom Moscow had lengthy denounced as terrorists.

“I’d name it improvised opportunism,” Ms. Notte mentioned. “It’s a fairly outstanding pivot.”

Mr. Putin, talking in December at his annual information convention, mentioned Russia had received, quite than misplaced, in Syria, as a result of Moscow had prevented the nation from turning into a terrorist enclave. He mentioned he had but to even see Mr. al-Assad, although he dedicated to assembly him sooner or later. It’s unclear if they’ve met since.

The Russian chief supplied using Russia’s bases to ship humanitarian support to the Syrian folks, who simply weeks earlier than had been weathering Russian airstrikes.

He would maintain Russia’s presence there, he mentioned, provided that Moscow’s pursuits coincided with these of the political forces that had taken management.

On the United Nations, the Russian ambassador, Vasily Nebenzya, mentioned in January that these forces had been “behaving fairly competently.” The friendship between Russia and Syria, he emphasised, is “not related to any regime.”

The navy swimsuit and tie Mr. al-Shara wore to the assembly with the Russian envoys belied his previous as an Al Qaeda fighter turned Islamist insurgent chief. So did his nonconfrontational rhetoric within the run-up to the talks, and his professed willingness to make good with former foes, together with america.

Mr. al-Shara welcomed a prime State Division delegation in December, regardless of having as soon as hung out in Iraq imprisoned by U.S. forces and having been designated a terrorist by the U.S. authorities with a $10 million bounty. (Washington withdrew the bounty after the talks.)

Mr. al-Shara wants sanctions reduction from america, in addition to Washington’s help on the Safety Council, for Syria to start an financial restoration and entry worldwide support.

The US additionally nonetheless has troops on the bottom, backing Kurdish-led forces in northeast Syria that Mr. al-Shara doesn’t management. He has acknowledged his want to maintain the nation entire, which would come with that territory, the place Washington backed native forces to destroy the Islamic State.

European officers have visited Damascus and supplied a path to sanctions reduction however have made clear that they’d disapprove of the retention of a Russian navy presence within the nation.

How the Trump administration will strategy the query is unclear. In December, because the Assad regime fell, Mr. Trump mentioned on social media that the conflict in Syria was “not our struggle” and that america ought to don’t have anything to do with it.

The query of Mr. al-Assad’s destiny provides to the fragile nature of the negotiations between Moscow and Damascus.

Mr. al-Shara continues to be attempting to ascertain legitimacy among the many Syrian folks and disparate Syrian teams, and placing a cope with Russia whereas it’s harboring the strongman who killed so many Syrians might undercut his standing. That’s one cause delaying any dedication to Moscow might make sense.

Mr. Lister described the request for Mr. al-Assad as a maximalist opening demand, attribute of early-stage negotiations.

“It hits the mark by way of laying down the precept: ‘We could also be prepared to be pragmatic at present, however we’ve got not forgotten historical past,’” Mr. Lister mentioned. “Russia’s complicity in all method of conflict crimes in Syria shouldn’t be one thing Syrians can be forgetting anytime quickly.”

Inside Syria, Mr. al-Shara continues to be pursuing remnants of the Assad regime’s power to consolidate management; Moscow might make that job tougher.

Although the lack of the bases in Syria would dent Russia’s energy within the area, Moscow doubtlessly has different choices. The Kremlin’s backing of the navy ruler of jap Libya might supply another location for a Russian naval base on the Mediterranean. Already, Russia has been utilizing Libyan air bases for flights.

The standing of the Russian bases in Syria might not be resolved quickly.

“I feel that each side profit from delaying the negotiations on the destiny of the bases,” mentioned Anton Mardasov, a Russian navy affairs skilled specializing in Syria. “Moscow can thus protect its picture, because it has already managed to carry out so long as doable and never depart instantly after the autumn of the Assad regime, and Damascus can for now negotiate the lifting of sanctions”

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