3 causes Eagles will beat Commanders and advance to Tremendous Bowl LIX

For the third time this season, the Philadelphia Eagles will sq. off with the Washington Commanders.

This time, a spot in Tremendous Bowl LIX is on the road.

The 2 groups break up their season collection, with the Eagles profitable again in Week 11 at Lincoln Monetary Discipline by a closing rating of 26-18, whereas the Commanders took the rematch in Week 16 by a closing rating of 36-33.

Now the rubber match is on the docket, with each groups hoping to move to New Orleans for Tremendous Bowl LIX. Listed here are three the explanation why that group may very well be the Eagles.

Saquon Barkley as Shohei Ohtani

Final Sunday’s NFC Divisional Spherical sport between the Eagles and the Los Angeles Rams adopted one thing of a well-recognized script.

An in depth sport was damaged open within the second half on an extended landing run from Saquon Barkley.

With the Eagles holding a 22-15 lead late within the fourth quarter, they took over possession on their 22-yard line. One play and 78 yards later, Barkley was in the long run zone, and Philadelphia had a 28-15 lead.

That storyline performed out within the Week 11 assembly between these two groups, because the Eagles held a slim 12-10 lead halfway by way of the fourth quarter. That’s when Barkley gave Philadelphia a little bit of a cushion on this 23-yard landing run to stake the Eagles to a 19-10 lead:

Then after Jayden Daniels threw an interception on Washington’s ensuing possession, the Eagles and Barkley struck once more, on this 39-yard TD scamper:

What’s notable about that Week 11 assembly is that the Commanders largely held Barkley in examine in the course of the first half, holding him to only 56 yards on 19 dashing makes an attempt for a 3.7 common, nicely beneath his season common of 5.8 yards per try. However the hazard of going through Barkley is much like pitching to Shohei Ohtani — you may get the higher of him for some time, however one mistake might spell sport over.

If you add in the truth that Washington’s run protection is close to the underside of the league in Anticipated Factors Allowed per Dashing Try (-0.019), that provides extra proof to the concept that whereas this sport could also be shut heading into the fourth quarter, Barkley may break one or two extra massive performs to ship the Eagles to Tremendous Bowl LIX:

Knowledge offered by RBSDM.com.

Jalen Hurts towards simulated pressures

Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts is below an absolute microscope this weekend.

Whereas the Eagles characteristic an imposing dashing assault, top-of-the-line offensive strains in soccer, and a protection that has grown into its personal all through the season, Hurts and the Philadelphia passing assault is a large query mark heading into the NFC Championship Sport. What’s most obtrusive is how Hurts has performed within the face of stress. Based on charting information from Professional Soccer Focus, Hurts has an Adjusted Completion Share (ACP) of 64.2% this season when pressured, rating him sixteenth in that class amongst certified passers (outlined as QBs with 50% of their group’s dropbacks this season) and beneath Jayden Daniels.

(As an apart, Josh Allen ranks twenty fourth out of 24 certified passers in that metric, which is one thing to observe on Sunday night).

Then there are these numbers from my expensive pal J.P. Acosta’s piece on Hurts from Thursday:

This reveals up massively below stress, the place Hurts is a completely totally different QB. Amongst all QBs with no less than 100 snaps below stress per Sumer Sports activities, Hurts has a -0.52 EPA per play, just one spot above QB Daniel Jones and never too far off from Will Levis. He additionally has a paltry 26.8% Success Price towards stress, which is in the identical area as Deshaun Watson. Not nice, Bob!

The Rams may need given Dan Quinn and firm a little bit of a roadmap to slowing down Hurts: Simulated pressures. Hurts and the Eagles offense struggled towards these appears to be like on Sunday. Take this instance, which is among the Rams’ seven sacks towards the Eagles within the NFC Divisional Spherical:

On this play, the Rams present stress with linebackers strolling up within the A-Gaps, and because the play begins Hurts will get his eyes to the best the place the Eagles are working a spacing idea. Nonetheless, one of many mugged-up linebackers drops below the route from DeVonta Smith, taking that choice away from Hurts. The QB is late to get his eyes to the bottom idea, the place Philadelphia has a pair of slant routes, and the play ends in a sack.

Ideally, the Eagles keep out of conditions like this towards the Rams, the place they confronted a Third-and-6 state of affairs. That begins with the primary part right here, and Philadelphia’s dashing assault holding the Eagles on schedule and in additional manageable third-down conditions.

However ought to the Eagles get behind the sticks on third downs, they will count on to see extra simulated stress appears to be like from the Commanders on Sunday. What they might want to get from Hurts in these moments are performs like this one towards the Cleveland Browns earlier within the season:

On this play, a 1st-and-15 state of affairs from Week 6, the Browns present stress on the inside, however drop a pair of defensive tackles into beneath protection, and convey stress from the slot.

Calmly, Hurts kinds by way of his choices within the pocket and assaults the center of the sphere, connecting with tight finish Grant Calcaterra on a 20-yard acquire.

If Philadelphia will get moments like this from Hurts on Sunday, they’ll Tremendous Bowl LIX.

Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith

Crucial to Washington’s run to the NFC Championship Sport has been the play of rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, significantly towards the blitz. Based on charting information from Professional Soccer Focus, Daniels has an Adjusted Completion Share (ACP) of 80.6% when blitzed within the playoffs, which is the perfect mark of the 4 quarterbacks left within the playoffs. Daniels’ enchancment towards the blitz has been stellar all through his rookie season, and once more a purpose the Commanders are nonetheless alive.

Nonetheless, that may change towards the Eagles. Take into account this from CBS Sports activities:

In Washington’s Week 16 win, the Eagles tried to deal with the Commanders quarterback like a rookie by blitzing Daniels on 35.6% of his dropbacks, which was Philadelphia’s second-highest blitz fee in a sport of the 2024 season, together with the playoffs. That method didn’t work as Daniels tore up the Eagles’ blitz for 173 yards passing, three touchdowns and no interceptions on 10 of his 15 throws whereas being blitzed. That netted out to a 145.3 passer score, which was the third highest in an NFL sport this season when blitzed on no less than 15 throws in a sport.

Nonetheless, that blitz proportion towards Washington in Week 16 was nicely above their season common. Over the common season, Vic Fangio introduced stress on simply 19.1% of snaps, which was fifth-lowest within the NFL.

As such, count on Fangio to blitz Daniels sparingly, leaning into his gifted defenders up entrance to generate stress on the rookie passer. Fortunately, he has gamers in Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith who can do exactly that. In opposition to the Rams on Sunday that Georgia duo mixed for 13 quarterback pressures, three sacks, three tackles for loss, and two compelled fumbles.

If that duo can proceed to stress passers, with out Philadelphia needing to blitz Daniels, the Eagles are going to Tremendous Bowl LIX.